Modeling and forecasting the long memory of Cyclical Trends in paleoclimate data

Tomas del Barrio Castro, Alvaro Escribano and Philipp Sibbertsen

Energy Economics, 2025, vol. 147, issue C

Abstract: This paper identifies and estimates the relevant cycles in paleoclimate data of earth temperature, ice volume and CO2. Cyclical cointegration analysis is used to connect these cycles to the earth eccentricity and obliquity and to see that the earth surface temperature and ice volume are closely connected. These findings are used to build a forecasting model including the cyclical component as well as the relevant earth and climate variables which outperforms models ignoring the cyclical behavior of the data. Especially the turning points can be predicted accurately using the proposed approach. Out of sample forecasts for the turning points of earth temperature, ice volume and CO2 are derived.

Keywords: Paleoclimate cycles; Cyclical fractional cointegration; Forecasting climate data (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C22 C32 C53 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:147:y:2025:i:c:s0140988325003445

DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2025.108520

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