The global supply pressure and oil supply–demand shocks: A time-scale and quantile analysis

Bangzheng Wu

Energy Economics, 2025, vol. 147, issue C

Abstract: In the context of globalization, the global supply chain faces many challenges. What is the relationship between the global supply chain and the supply–demand structure of crude oil? This paper explores the impact mechanism between global supply chain pressure (GSCPI) and crude oil supply–demand shocks from a time-scale and quantile-based perspective. We select the oil supply–demand shock indices, which include oil supply shocks (S1) and oil demand shocks related to economic activities (D1), consumption (D2), and inventory (D3). GSCPI has a significant effect on S1 and D1 over multiple periods, especially during economic turmoil and crisis. Additionally, quantile-based tests show that GSCPI on S1 and D1 is particularly significant under extreme conditions, whereas the effect of D1 on GSCPI is more significant at lower quantiles. The effect of GSCPI on D2 is significant when supply chain pressure is moderate. The effect of GSCPI on D3 is strengthened under extreme economic stress, whereas the direct effect of D3 on GSCPI is weaker. As a whole, GSCPI has an important effect on the crude oil supply and demand under different economic conditions, while the reverse effect is relatively weak and complex. Therefore, supply chain managers can improve the stability and timeliness of the supply chain by considering crude oil supply–demand shocks. Moreover, energy-related policy-makers should pay attention to changes in the supply chain and take timely remedial measures.

Keywords: Global supply pressure; Crude oil; Supply–demand shocks; Granger causality (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C22 C53 G12 G17 Q43 Q47 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140988325003792
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:147:y:2025:i:c:s0140988325003792

DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2025.108555

Access Statistics for this article

Energy Economics is currently edited by R. S. J. Tol, Beng Ang, Lance Bachmeier, Perry Sadorsky, Ugur Soytas and J. P. Weyant

More articles in Energy Economics from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().