US partisan conflict, Sino-US political relation news, and oil market dynamics

Yifei Cai, Jamel Saadaoui and Gazi Salah Uddin

Energy Economics, 2025, vol. 149, issue C

Abstract: This study analyzes the effects of US partisan conflict and US-China political relation news shocks on the oil market. A shock to partisan conflict leads to a drop in the political relations news index, a decrease in oil demand, and an increase in oil prices. When the political relations news index rises, it significantly reduces oil demand and prices, with only minor effects on oil supply. The study also finds that negative political news shocks have a more significant impact on the oil market compared to positive news shocks, leading to lower oil prices and demand. These findings suggest important policy considerations for managing the impacts of political news on the oil market.

Keywords: China; Oil market; Political relation news; Partisan conflict; Asymmetries (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C32 F51 Q4 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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Working Paper: US Partisan Conflict, Sino-US Political Relation News, and Oil Market Dynamics (2024)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:149:y:2025:i:c:s0140988325006474

DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2025.108820

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