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Physical market determinants of the price of crude oil and the market premium

Guillaume Chevillon () and Christine Rifflart

Energy Economics, 2009, vol. 31, issue 4, 537-549

Abstract: We analyze the determinants of the real price of crude oil by means of an equilibrium correction model over the last two decades where we focus on the aspects of the physical market that impact on the clearing price. We find that two cointegrating relations affect the changes in prices: one refers to OPEC's behavior, attempting to control prices using its market power and quotas; the other to the coverage rate of OECD expected future demand using inventory behaviors. We derive a forecasting equation for the change in oil prices which we use to assess the speculative elements of the price increases of the period 2000-05. We show that worries alien to the physical markets were the causes of the increase in oil prices and we quantify their overall impact.

Keywords: Oil; price; Market; premium; Forecasting; Cointegration (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2009
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Working Paper: Physical Market Determinants of the Price of Crude Oil and the Market Premium (2007) Downloads
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