The performance of composite forecast models of value-at-risk in the energy market

Yen-Chen Chiu, I-Yuan Chuang and Jing-Yi Lai

Energy Economics, 2010, vol. 32, issue 2, 423-431

Abstract: This paper examines a comparative evaluation of the predictive performance of various Value-at-Risk (VaR) models in the energy market. This study extends the conventional research in literature, by proposing composite forecast models for applying to Brent and WTI crude oil prices. Forecasting techniques considered here include the EWMA, stable density, Kernel density, Hull and White, GARCH-GPD, plus composite forecasts from linearly combining two or more of the competing models above. Findings show Hull and White to be the most powerful approach for capturing downside risk in the energy market. Reasonable results are also available from carefully combining VaR forecasts.

Keywords: Value-at-Risk; Composite; forecast; models; EWMA; Kernel; density; Stable; density; GARCH-GPD; Energy; markets (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2010
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (19)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:32:y:2010:i:2:p:423-431

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