What are the starting points? Evaluating base-year assumptions in the Asian Modeling Exercise

Vaibhav Chaturvedi, Stephanie Waldhoff, Leon Clarke and Shinichiro Fujimori

Energy Economics, 2012, vol. 34, issue S3, S261-S271

Abstract: A common feature of model inter-comparison efforts is that the base year numbers for important parameters such as population and GDP can differ substantially across models. This paper explores the sources and implications of this variation in Asian countries across the models participating in the Asian Modeling Exercise (AME). Because the models do not all have a common base year, each team was required to provide data for 2005 for comparison purposes. This paper compares the year 2005 information for different models, noting the degree of variation in important parameters, including population, GDP, primary energy, electricity, and CO2 emissions. It then explores the difference in these key parameters across different sources of base-year information. The analysis confirms that the sources provide different values for many key parameters. This variation across data sources and additional reasons why models might provide different base-year numbers, including differences in regional definitions, differences in model base year, and differences in GDP transformation methodologies, are then discussed in the context of the AME scenarios. Finally, the paper explores the implications of base-year variation on long-term model results.

Keywords: Base year data; Integrated assessment models; Energy-emission scenarios; Asian countries (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C60 C89 Q40 Q47 Q59 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2012
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (13)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:34:y:2012:i:s3:p:s261-s271

DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2012.05.004

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