Baseline projections of energy and emissions in Asia

Geoffrey J. Blanford, Steven K. Rose and Massimo Tavoni ()

Energy Economics, 2012, vol. 34, issue S3, S284-S292

Abstract: This paper analyzes the projected development of energy systems in the Asia region in the hypothetical absence of future carbon policies. Baseline scenarios prepared by participating teams in the Asia Modeling Exercise are used to generate a comprehensive assessment of the key drivers of CO2 emissions for the next several decades, especially for China and India. We find a very wide range of projected emissions paths across the models and identify per capita income and energy intensity as the two major factors responsible for the variation. While the range of assumptions for growth in the former is roughly consistent with historical experience in other Asian economies, models foresee faster reductions in the latter with respect to those observed in neighboring countries at similar stages of economic development. On the other hand, there is a considerable agreement on the evolution of the energy technology mix, which is assumed to continue to be dominated by fossil fuels in the foreseeable future.

Keywords: Integrated assessment modeling; Baseline scenarios; Emissions projections; Asia (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O11 O44 O53 Q32 Q43 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2012
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (21)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:34:y:2012:i:s3:p:s284-s292

DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2012.08.006

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