Exploring the future role of Asia utilizing a Scenario Matrix Architecture and Shared Socio-economic Pathways

Jiyong Eom, Kate Calvin, Leon Clarke, Jae Edmonds, Sonny Kim, Robert Kopp (), Page Kyle, Patrick Luckow, Richard Moss, Pralit Patel and Marshall Wise

Energy Economics, 2012, vol. 34, issue S3, S325-S338

Abstract: We explore the implications that alternative pathways for human population and economic development have for the role of Asia in reference no-climate-policy scenarios and scenarios in which climate forcing is limited. We consider three different pathways of socioeconomic development, which we refer to as Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) and four different levels of limitation on climate forcing, which we refer to as Shared Climate Policy Assumptions (SPAs). SSPs are differentiated by population and economic growth assumptions, while SPAs are differentiated on the level of radiative forcing in the year 2100. Regardless of the scenarios we examined Asia plays a central role in shaping the world's future with nearly half of the world's people and more than half of the world's economic activity and energy consumption. The future of Asia and the world are dramatically different across the various combinations of SSPs and SPAs. High population worlds place significant stress on Asian resources and ecosystems. In high population SSPs the poorest members of the population face high energy and food prices and the more stringent the level of emissions mitigation, the more stress poor populations experience, though the more stringent the emissions mitigation, the larger the area of unmanaged ecosystems that are preserved.

Keywords: Shared Socio-economic Pathway; Socioeconomic development; Mitigative and adaptive challenges; Emissions mitigation; Energy system; Land use change (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q41 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q54 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2012
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (7)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:34:y:2012:i:s3:p:s325-s338

DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2012.03.012

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