On the relationship between the prices of oil and the precious metals: Revisiting with a multivariate regime-switching decision tree

Philippe Charlot and Vêlayoudom Marimoutou

Energy Economics, 2014, vol. 44, issue C, 456-467

Abstract: This study examines the volatility and correlation and their relationships among the euro/US dollar exchange rates, the S&P500 equity indices, and the prices of WTI crude oil and the precious metals (gold, silver, and platinum) over the period 2005 to 2012. Our model links the univariate volatilities with the correlations via a hidden stochastic decision tree. The ensuing Hidden Markov Decision Tree (HMDT) model is in fact an extension of the Hidden Markov Model (HMM) introduced by Jordan et al. (1997). The architecture of this model is the opposite that of the classical deterministic approach based on a binary decision tree and, it allows a probabilistic vision of the relationship between univariate volatility and correlation. Our results are categorized into three groups, namely (1) exchange rates and oil, (2) S&P500 indices, and (3) precious metals. A switching dynamics is seen to characterize the volatilities, while, in the case of the correlations, the series switch from one regime to another, this movement touching a peak during the period of the Subprime crisis in the US, and again during the days following the Tohoku earthquake in Japan. Our findings show that the relationships between volatility and correlation are dependent upon the nature of the series considered, sometimes corresponding to those found in econometric studies, according to which correlation increases in bear markets, at other times differing from them.

Keywords: Multivariate GARCH; Dynamic correlations; Regime switching; Hidden Markov Decision Tree (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C32 C51 G0 G1 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (51)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140988314001054
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
Working Paper: On the relationship between the prices of oil and the precious metals: Revisiting with a multivariate regime-switching decision tree (2014)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:44:y:2014:i:c:p:456-467

DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2014.04.021

Access Statistics for this article

Energy Economics is currently edited by R. S. J. Tol, Beng Ang, Lance Bachmeier, Perry Sadorsky, Ugur Soytas and J. P. Weyant

More articles in Energy Economics from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().