What drives natural gas prices? — A structural VAR approach

Sebastian Nick and Stefan Thoenes

Energy Economics, 2014, vol. 45, issue C, 517-527

Abstract: In this study, we develop a structural vector autoregressive model (VAR) for the German natural gas market. Our setup allows us to analyze the determinants of the natural gas price in a comprehensive framework. In particular, we illustrate the usefulness of our approach by disentangling the effects of different fundamental influences on gas prices during three recent supply interruptions: the Russian–Ukrainian gas dispute of January 2009, the Libyan civil war in 2011 and the withheld Russian exports in February 2012. Our results show that the natural gas price is affected by temperature, storage and supply shortfalls in the short term, while the long-term development is closely tied to both crude oil and coal prices, capturing the economic climate and the substitution relationship between the different energy commodities.

Keywords: Natural gas; Structural vector autoregression; SVAR; Supply interruption; Security of supply (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q41 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (105)

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Working Paper: What Drives Natural Gas Prices? - A Structural VAR Approach (2013)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:45:y:2014:i:c:p:517-527

DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2014.08.010

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