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A unit root model for trending time-series energy variables

Paresh Narayan () and Ruipeng Liu

Energy Economics, 2015, vol. 50, issue C, 391-402

Abstract: In this paper, we propose a GARCH-based unit root test that is flexible enough to account for; (a) trending variables, (b) two endogenous structural breaks, and (c) heteroskedastic data series. Our proposed model is applied to a range of time-series, trending, and heteroskedastic energy variables. Our two main findings are: first, the proposed trend-based GARCH unit root model outperforms a GARCH model without trend; and, second, allowing for a time trend and two endogenous structural breaks are important in practice, for doing so allows us to reject the unit root null hypothesis.

Keywords: Trend; Unit root; Structural break; GARCH; Energy price (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C12 C58 F30 G14 G15 G17 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015
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