 Nonlinear causality between crude oil price and exchange rate: A comparative study of China and IndiaDebi Prasad Bal and Badri Rath Energy Economics, 2015, vol. 51, issue C, 149-156 Abstract: While several studies have examined the linear causal relationship between oil prices and exchange rates, little is known about the nonlinear causality between these two variables. The present paper tries to fill this research gap in the context of India and China. By applying the Hiemstra and Jones (1994) nonlinear Granger causality test to the VAR residuals, the study finds a significant bi-directional nonlinear Granger causality between oil prices and exchange rates in both countries. The findings suggest that the nonlinearity of oil price influences the exchange rate irrespective of the exchange rate regimes. Further, to check robustness, the persistence in the variance of oil price and exchange rate is taken into account using a GARCH (1, 1) model. While the results consistently hold in the case of India, with respect to China, a unidirectional causality runs from exchange rate to oil price. However, the oil price in China does not Granger cause exchange rate. Keywords: Nonlinear causality; BDS test; Oil price; Exchange rate; Volatility persistence (search for similar items in EconPapers) Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:51:y:2015:i:c:p:149-156 DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2015.06.013 Access Statistics for this article Energy Economics is currently edited by R. S. J. Tol, Beng Ang, Lance Bachmeier, Perry Sadorsky, Ugur Soytas and J. P. Weyant More articles in Energy Economics from Elsevier |
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