Impact of energy prices and cellulosic biomass supply on agriculture, energy, and the environment: An integrated modeling approach

Rebecca S. Dodder, P. Ozge Kaplan, Amani Elobeid, Simla Tokgoz, Silvia Secchi and Lyubov Kurkalova ()

Energy Economics, 2015, vol. 51, issue C, 77-87

Abstract: The accelerated growth in biofuel markets has both created and reinforced linkages between agriculture and energy. The evolution of biofuel markets over the next 10–20years and the implications for energy, agriculture, and the environment are uncertain. Building on an integrated agriculture–energy modeling framework, this study analyzes a baseline and three alternative scenarios: two scenarios based on energy prices (crude oil and natural gas) and one based on assumptions regarding cellulosic biomass availability. By examining the impact of scenarios driven by (a) changes in the energy sector and (b) changes in the agricultural sector, we can compare the differential effects on biofuels markets, commodity prices and quantities in each sector, and CO2 emissions. Scenario comparisons show biofuel markets affected more by crude oil prices than natural gas prices. However, higher natural gas prices shift the biofuel production mix away from corn-grain based to more cellulosic ethanol via multiple mechanisms. Alternatively, the scenario with no cellulosic feedstock lowers total ethanol production and raises ethanol and corn prices. In terms of environmental impacts, higher ethanol levels driven by higher oil prices lead to lower CO2 emissions. In comparison, the no cellulosic scenario results in the highest CO2 trajectory relative to the baseline.

Keywords: Biofuel; Ethanol; Agriculture; Natural gas; Crude oil; Cellulosic; Carbon dioxide (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C61 Q11 Q16 Q42 Q47 Q54 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (8)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140988315001826
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:51:y:2015:i:c:p:77-87

DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2015.06.008

Access Statistics for this article

Energy Economics is currently edited by R. S. J. Tol, Beng Ang, Lance Bachmeier, Perry Sadorsky, Ugur Soytas and J. P. Weyant

More articles in Energy Economics from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().