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The dynamics of fuel demand and illegal fuel activity in Turkey

A. Talha Yalta () and A. Yasemin Yalta
Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Ayse Yasemin Yalta

Energy Economics, 2016, vol. 54, issue C, 144-158

Abstract: We expose the dynamics of road fuel demand by employing maximum entropy resampling based interval estimates in a fixed width rolling window framework. Our approach facilitates using a uniform specification in a sequential procedure while also providing robust and efficient estimates that can evolve over time. Ours is also the first study to develop a method for estimating illegal fuel activity. To demonstrate our methodology, we use monthly data between 2003–2012 and focus on the demand for diesel and gasoline in Turkey. The results show estimated monthly illegal activity ranging between 5–23 million liters over the last six years.

Keywords: Energy demand; Gasoline; Diesel; Maximum entropy; Bootstrap; Turkey (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q41 C15 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
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