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Oil prices and stock markets: Does the effect of uncertainty change over time?

Young C. Joo and Sung Y. Park ()

Energy Economics, 2017, vol. 61, issue C, 42-51

Abstract: This paper investigates empirical marginal effects of uncertainty measured by conditional variance of the stock and crude oil prices on their returns using stock index prices for U.S., Japan, Korea, and Hong Kong over the period 1996–2015. A time-varying parameter model with a dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) bivariate GARCH-in-Mean specification is considered to investigate time-varying marginal effects of uncertainty on the stock and crude oil returns. The empirical findings show that there exist significant negative time-varying effects of uncertainty on the returns over some sub-periods.

Keywords: Crude oil returns; Stock returns; Oil uncertainty; Bivariate GARCH-in-Mean model; Time-varying parameter (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C22 Q40 G12 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
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Energy Economics is currently edited by R. S. J. Tol, Beng Ang, Lance Bachmeier, Perry Sadorsky, Ugur Soytas and J. P. Weyant

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