Dynamic return-volatility dependence and risk measure of CoVaR in the oil market: A time-varying mixed copula model
Qiang Ji () and
Energy Economics, 2017, vol. 68, issue C, 53-65
This study investigates the risk level in the oil market measured by Value-at-Risk (VaR) and conditional VaR (CoVaR), as well as the dynamic and asymmetric dependence between WTI returns and crude oil volatility index (OVX), by constructing six time-varying mixed copula models. Results show that mixed copula between t copula and the 270-degree rotated Clayton copula is the optimal fitting copula to measure dynamic dependence. The estimated time-varying Kendall coefficients indicate that WTI returns and OVX present negative dependence most of the time. There exists a structural change point of dependence between WTI returns and OVX changes on April 17, 2009, while the dependence characteristics within the subsamples are similar to that in the whole sample, indicating the rationality of our time-varying mixed copula models. Finally, the tests show significant risk spillover from OVX to WTI returns and also asymmetric effects for CoVaRs in response to different upside and downside extreme OVX movements.
Keywords: Return-volatility dependence; Implied volatility index; Oil market; Risk spillover; Time-varying mixed copula model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C1 C5 G1 Q02 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (12) Track citations by RSS feed
Downloads: (external link)
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:68:y:2017:i:c:p:53-65
Access Statistics for this article
Energy Economics is currently edited by R. S. J. Tol, Beng Ang, Lance Bachmeier, Perry Sadorsky, Ugur Soytas and J. P. Weyant
More articles in Energy Economics from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Haili He ().