Economics at your fingertips  

A generalized Schwartz model for energy spot prices — Estimation using a particle MCMC method

Anne Floor Brix, Asger Lunde and Wei Wei

Energy Economics, 2018, vol. 72, issue C, 560-582

Abstract: We investigate a large set of energy models that account for the stylized properties in energy prices, especially stochastic volatility and spikes. The models under consideration belong to the class of factor models while our full model features a two-factor price process and a two-component stochastic volatility process. The first factor in the price process captures the normal variations; the second accounts for spikes. The two-component volatility allows for a flexible autocorrelation structure. Instead of using various filtering techniques for splitting the factors, as often found in the literature, we estimate the model in one step using the particle MCMC method. We fit the models to both the spot market and the forward market for UK natural gas. We find that the inclusion of stochastic volatility is crucial for the statistical fit of spot prices whereas the spikes are important for explaining forward prices.

Keywords: Energy prices; Forward prices; Multi-factor model; Stochastic volatility; Spikes (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C11 C15 C5 C52 Q4 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1) Track citations by RSS feed

Downloads: (external link)
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link:

DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2018.03.037

Access Statistics for this article

Energy Economics is currently edited by R. S. J. Tol, Beng Ang, Lance Bachmeier, Perry Sadorsky, Ugur Soytas and J. P. Weyant

More articles in Energy Economics from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Nithya Sathishkumar ().

Page updated 2021-05-02
Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:72:y:2018:i:c:p:560-582