Coal consumption in China: How to bend down the curve?

Jian Chai, Mengfan Du, Ting Liang, Xiaojie Christine Sun, Ji Yu and Zhe George Zhang

Energy Economics, 2019, vol. 80, issue C, 38-47

Abstract: Noting the recent decline in the coal consumption in China, a variety of prior literature studies the peak of coal consumption and finds mixed results. This paper systematically studies the historical rules, the driving mechanism, as well as the future trend of coal consumption in China. First, through comparative analysis and breakpoint regression, we find that there are three consecutive inverted U-shapes between China's coal consumption and economic development from 1965 to 2016, and they reach inflection points in 1980, 1998, and 2013, respectively. Second, the LMDI decomposition analysis of coal consumption reveals that output effects and intensity effects jointly determine the overall trend of each inverted U, and structural effects play a key role in the formation of each inverted U-shaped inflection point. Finally, the forecast shows that coal consumption will decline at an average annual rate of 0.4% from 2017 to 2030, and by then it will be basically in a plateau period. There is a big gap between the consumption trend and the inverted U scenario. In order to bend the coal consumption curve downward and ensure that 2013 will become a long-term peak, the government should accelerate the optimization of the industrial structure and energy consumption structure, and improve coal consumption efficiency continuously through a mix of policies.

Keywords: Coal consumption; Economic growth; Phased inverted-U; Forecast (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C13 C32 C51 N70 Q43 Q47 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (29)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140988318304985
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:80:y:2019:i:c:p:38-47

DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2018.12.016

Access Statistics for this article

Energy Economics is currently edited by R. S. J. Tol, Beng Ang, Lance Bachmeier, Perry Sadorsky, Ugur Soytas and J. P. Weyant

More articles in Energy Economics from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().