Economics at your fingertips  

Inflation target and (a)symmetries in the oil price pass-through to inflation

López-Villavicencio, Antonia and Marc Pourroy ()
Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Antonia López Villavicencio ()

Energy Economics, 2019, vol. 80, issue C, 860-875

Abstract: In this paper we employ state-space models to estimate the pass-through of oil price changes to consumer prices for a large sample of countries from 1970 to 2017. By controlling for self-selection bias and endogeneity and allowing for different responses to positive and negative price changes, we asses the differences between explicit inflation targeting (IT) countries and a control group. Surprisingly perhaps, our results suggest that the pass-through is higher for IT countries. Our main contribution is to show that these is mainly due to IT countries having a significant higher pass-through than non-IT countries when the oil price decreases: a 10% drop in oil price leads about a 0.11% drop in inflation in ITers (of which 4pp are explained by the monetary regime). Importantly, we show that adopting IT reduces the asymmetry of the pass-through. We run several robustness checks and conclude that falling oil prices are more welcomed by the central banks with an IT framework, in particular during deflationary episodes or when inflation is above the target.

Keywords: Oil price; Pass-through; Inflation targeting; State-space model; Propensity score matching (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E31 E42 Q43 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: Track citations by RSS feed

Downloads: (external link)
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
Working Paper: Inflation target and (a)symmetries in the oil price pass-through to inflation (2019) Downloads
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link:

Access Statistics for this article

Energy Economics is currently edited by R. S. J. Tol, Beng Ang, Lance Bachmeier, Perry Sadorsky, Ugur Soytas and J. P. Weyant

More articles in Energy Economics from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Dana Niculescu ().

Page updated 2019-11-24
Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:80:y:2019:i:c:p:860-875