What drives commodity price booms and busts?

David Jacks and Martin Stuermer

Energy Economics, 2020, vol. 85, issue C

Abstract: We provide evidence on the dynamic effects of aggregate commodity demand shocks, commodity supply shocks, and storage demand or other commodity-specific demand shocks on real commodity prices. We analyze a new data set of price and production levels for 12 agricultural goods, metals, and soft commodities from 1870 to 2013. We establish that commodity demand shocks strongly dominate commodity supply shocks in driving prices over a broad set of commodities and over a long period of time. While commodity demand shocks have gained importance over time, commodity supply shocks have become less relevant.

Keywords: Commodity prices; Natural resources; Structural VAR (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E30 N50 Q31 Q33 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (41)

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Working Paper: What drives commodity price booms and busts? (2016)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:85:y:2020:i:c:s0140988318301907

DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2018.05.023

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