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The macroeconomic impact of oil earnings uncertainty: New evidence from analyst forecasts

Xiaohan Ma () and Roberto Samaniego ()

Energy Economics, 2020, vol. 90, issue C

Abstract: We develop measures of oil earnings uncertainty (OEU) using analyst forecasts drawn from a large firm-level dataset. OEU is related to future economic downturns, so some OEU measures may serve to forecast future downturns. An increase in OEU also has adverse effects on the US oil sector. The results are robust to conditioning on aggregate uncertainty. At the same time, OEU is related to increases in stock prices – unlike aggregate uncertainty, which has the opposite effect. OEU is thus an independent influence on both the oil industry and on economic aggregates.

Keywords: Oil earnings uncertainty; Business cycles; Oil markets; Analyst forecasts (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D80 E32 E37 E47 E71 G17 Q43 Q47 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:90:y:2020:i:c:s0140988320301729

DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2020.104832

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Energy Economics is currently edited by R. S. J. Tol, Beng Ang, Lance Bachmeier, Perry Sadorsky, Ugur Soytas and J. P. Weyant

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