 Development of China TIMES-30P model and its application to model China's provincial low carbon transformationNan Li, Wenying Chen and Qiang Zhang Energy Economics, 2020, vol. 92, issue C Abstract: To explore the provincial energy system transformation till 2050 under the carbon emission constraints from a bottom-up perspective, this research develops the China TIMES-30P model with detailed characterization of China's provincial energy system and applies it to low carbon scenarios analysis. A set of methodology is developed to project the key provincial socio-economic parameters and the provincial energy service demand, which is the major driving force of the China TIMES-30P model. Results show that compared with the value in 2015, the provincial intensity of final energy consumption will decrease by 65%–90% under different scenarios in 2050. The intensities of primary energy consumption in most of the provinces will be lower than 0.2 tce/1000 dollars under different scenarios in 2050. In the WBD2 scenario, the national CO2 emission can reach the peak value of 9.3 billion tons in 2020 and the provincial CO2 emission intensity in 2050 will decrease by 85%–100%, compared with the value in 2015. Keywords: Socio-economic development; Energy service demand; Provincial energy consumption; CO2 emission; China TIMES-30P model (search for similar items in EconPapers) Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:92:y:2020:i:c:s0140988320302954 DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2020.104955 Access Statistics for this article Energy Economics is currently edited by R. S. J. Tol, Beng Ang, Lance Bachmeier, Perry Sadorsky, Ugur Soytas and J. P. Weyant More articles in Energy Economics from Elsevier |
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