Mitigation potential of CO2 emissions from modal shift induced by subsidy in hinterland container transport

Xuezong Tao, Qin Wu and Lichao Zhu

Energy Policy, 2017, vol. 101, issue C, 265-273

Abstract: A comprehensive analytical framework is presented to assess the potential modal shift (MS) from road transport to rail/water transport and resulting carbon dioxide (CO2) emission mitigation induced by a subsidy policy in port-hinterland transport. In this framework, a modal share model based on a random coefficient logit model and an activity-based method are used to analyze the contribution of an incentive policy to the potential MS and corresponding CO2 emission mitigation. Stated preference survey, face-to-face interviews, and group discussions are employed to obtain the essential data. Case study result shows that a CO2 emission mitigation of 2,586.88t may be achieved with a subsidy of 200 RMB/TEU (Renminbi/20-feet equivalent unit) to the shippers who choose the road-rail combined transport chain in Yiwu City. Compared with the business-as-usual scenario without subsidy, the subsidy policy scenario can achieve a 3.2% MS from a road-only transport chain to a road-rail combined transport chain, as well as a 2.07% CO2 emission mitigation in the Yiwu-Ningbo container transport corridor. This finding reveals that the subsidies can serve as short-term solutions, but a policy package, including financial, technological, operational, and managerial measures, is required as a long-term strategy.

Keywords: Hinterland container transport; Modal shift; CO2 emissions; Random coefficient logit; Semi-life cycle assessment; Activity-based method (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (15)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:enepol:v:101:y:2017:i:c:p:265-273

DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2016.11.049

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