Consistency and robustness of forecasting for emerging technologies: The case of Li-ion batteries for electric vehicles

Apurba Sakti, Inês M.L. Azevedo, Erica R.H. Fuchs, Jeremy J. Michalek, Kevin G. Gallagher and Jay F. Whitacre

Energy Policy, 2017, vol. 106, issue C, 415-426

Abstract: There are a large number of accounts about rapidly declining costs of batteries with potentially transformative effects, but these accounts often are not based on detailed design and technical information. Using a method ideally suited for that purpose, we find that when experts are free to assume any battery pack design, a majority of the cost estimates are consistent with the ranges reported in the literature, although the range is notably large. However, we also find that 55% of relevant experts’ component-level cost projections are inconsistent with their total pack-level projections, and 55% of relevant experts’ elicited cost projections are inconsistent with the cost projections generated by putting their design- and process-level assumptions into our process-based cost model (PBCM). These results suggest a need for better understanding of the technical assumptions driving popular consensus regarding future costs. Approaches focusing on technological details first, followed by non-aggregated and systemic cost estimates while keeping the experts aware of any discrepancies, should they arise, may result in more accurate forecasts.

Keywords: Electric vehicle; Lithium-ion battery; Battery design; Expert elicitation; Technology forecasting (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (8)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:enepol:v:106:y:2017:i:c:p:415-426

DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2017.03.063

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