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An updated assessment of oil market disruption risks

Phillip C. Beccue, Hillard Huntington, Paul N. Leiby and Kenneth R. Vincent

Energy Policy, 2018, vol. 115, issue C, 456-469

Abstract: The probability of the size and duration of another oil disruption is critical to estimating the value of any policies for reducing the economic damages from a sudden oil supply disruption. The Energy Modeling Forum at Stanford University developed a risk assessment framework and evaluated the likelihood of one or more foreign oil disruptions over the next ten years. Leading geopolitical, military and oil-market experts provided their expertise on the probability of different events occurring, and their corresponding link to major disruptions in key oil market regions. The study evaluated 5 primary regions of production: Saudi Arabia, Other Persian Gulf, Africa, Latin America, and Russian / Caspian States. Disruptions are defined as being net of offsets (e.g., OPEC spare capacity), with the notable exception that the SPR is not included as a source of offsets. At least once during the 10-year time frame (2016–2025), there exists approximately an 80% probability of a net (of offsets) disruption of 2 MMBD (million barrels per day) or more lasting at least 1 month.

Keywords: Oil disruption; Risk analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q34 Q48 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
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Working Paper: An Updated Assessment of Oil Market Disruption Risks (2016) Downloads
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Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:115:y:2018:i:c:p:456-469