How modifications of China's energy data affect carbon mitigation targets

Heran Zheng, Yuli Shan, Zhifu Mi, Jing Meng (), Jiamin Ou, Heike Schroeder and Dabo Guan ()

Energy Policy, 2018, vol. 116, issue C, 337-343

Abstract: Frequent modifications to energy statistics have led to considerable uncertainty in China's ability to achieve its carbon mitigation targets. Here, we quantitatively measure the impact of energy data revisions on China's ability to achieve its mitigation targets. Our results indicate the following effects of data revisions: 1. Mitigation challenges have increased by 5%, and the achievement of national mitigation targets (as well as international pledges) might be postponed by two years. 2. Greater than expected carbon space or emission quota (from 22.94 to 31.31 Gt) will be obtained from 2015 to 2035. 3. CO2 peak levels may become highly uncertain, with the uncertainty varying from 12% to 29%. In addition to national mitigation targets, data revision has profound implications for key industrial sectors. For example, raw coal consumption by the cement and iron and steel industries has long been underestimated, bringing uncertainty to the achievement of industrial mitigation targets. Our results reveal considerable uncertainty in China's energy data, and this uncertainty suggests that previous mitigation achievements have been overestimated and that the mitigation targets, carbon space values, and peak level estimates proposed by future mitigation schemes may not be reached.

Keywords: Mitigation; China; Uncertainty; Data revision; CO2 inventory (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (14)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421518301083
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:enepol:v:116:y:2018:i:c:p:337-343

DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2018.02.031

Access Statistics for this article

Energy Policy is currently edited by N. France

More articles in Energy Policy from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().