Estimating Peak uranium production in China – Based on a Stella model

Jianchun Fang, Chi Keung Lau, Zhou Lu and Wanshan Wu

Energy Policy, 2018, vol. 120, issue C, 250-258

Abstract: This paper uses the Logistic Curve and the STELLA model to simulate the Hubbert Peak uranium production in China. We used three scenarios to estimate China's Peak uranium. And the results are quite robust. According to Scenario 3, the Hubbert Peak uranium production is expected to be reached in 2065 with 4605 t per year. Before the peak, China's uranium demand will grow at the rate of about 7.69% per year, which is about three times the growth rate of production. China's uranium import dependence is estimated to continue to increase. In order to improve uranium resources security, the Chinese government needs to increase investment in uranium ore exploration, encourage private sector's investment in uranium production to promote competition, and improve cooperation with non-uranium mining enterprises for more efficient use of resources. To enhance the country's uranium security, China should establish development funds, accelerate acquisition of uranium enterprises abroad, increase R&D in the unconventional uranium resources such as phosphate mine, and take advantage of price downturn in uranium market to increase strategic reserves.

Keywords: Q47; C15; O13; Uranium; Hubbert Peak; Logistic curve; STELLA model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (10)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421518303525
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:enepol:v:120:y:2018:i:c:p:250-258

DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2018.05.049

Access Statistics for this article

Energy Policy is currently edited by N. France

More articles in Energy Policy from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().