The impact of CO2 mitigation policies on light vehicle fleet in Brazil

Lívia M. Benvenutti, Mauricio Uriona-Maldonado and Lucila M.S. Campos
Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Mauricio Uriona Maldonado

Energy Policy, 2019, vol. 126, issue C, 370-379

Abstract: Transportation is the largest contributor to greenhouse gas emissions in the energy sector, which, in turn, is the largest contributor in Brazil. The way different policies mitigate CO2 emissions in the short, medium, and long-term is an ongoing research topic. Four potential policies for light vehicle fleet are investigated: (i) energy efficiency; (ii) modal change and regulatory management; (iii) renovation of the fleet; and (iv) biofuel increase. A system dynamics model is developed to estimate the delay in fleet turnover and its CO2 emissions change during the 1980–2050 period. The results indicate a rebound effect in the long-term when an objective of renovating the fleet is realized. Only if more stringent terms are considered will this policy contribute to further mitigate CO2 emissions in the long run. Results also demonstrate a longer-term perspective to energy efficiency and modal change policies, indicating the need for mandatory CO2 emission targets, unseen in the country at the present time. A biofuel increase strategy provides CO2 reduction in the short-term, and it is advisable this strategy be adopted alongside the other ones.

Keywords: Light vehicle fleet; CO2 emissions; Mitigation policies; System dynamics; Long-term analysis; Rebound effect (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (6)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:enepol:v:126:y:2019:i:c:p:370-379

DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2018.11.014

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