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A techno-economic and environmental assessment of long-term energy policies and climate variability impact on the energy system

Nnaemeka Vincent Emodi, Taha Chaiechi and A.B.M. Rabiul Alam Beg

Energy Policy, 2019, vol. 128, issue C, 329-346

Abstract: This paper examines the impact of climate variability and change (CV&C), and energy policies on the future energy system in Australia. Scenarios were developed to represent CV&C impacts and policy options, which were analysed with the Long-range Energy Alternative and Planning system for the period 2010–2050. The results indicate that although energy demand is likely to increase threefold in the business-as-usual scenario, CV&C further increases demand to 150 petajoule. A combined policy option involving modal shift and penetration of electric and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles results in a 49–53% decrease in transport fuel demand and emissions. The economic analysis reveals a substantial decline in sales revenue and increase in generation costs due to CV&C impacts. Higher renewable energy integration results in lower wholesale electricity prices across independent electricity markets. Cumulative cost-benefit analysis indicates that economic benefits increase to US$4.9 trillion in an advanced renewable energy scenario. Emissions and energy consumed increased under climatic conditions, but decreased after policy intervention. Ignoring the influence of CV&C may result in underestimation of future energy demand and installed capacity in Australia. Therefore, energy and climate policies should consider long-term economic benefits over short-term system costs.

Keywords: Climate variability and change; Australia; LEAP; Energy policies; Emission reduction; Scenario analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
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DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2019.01.011

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