Energy-system modelling of the EU strategy towards climate-neutrality

Pantelis Capros, Georgios Zazias, Stavroula Evangelopoulou, Maria Kannavou, Theofano Fotiou, Pelopidas Siskos, Alessia De Vita and Kostis Sakellaris

Energy Policy, 2019, vol. 134, issue C

Abstract: We extend and use the PRIMES energy model to explore pathways towards climate-neutrality in the EU by 2050 and 2070 and analyse implications on energy demand, supply and costs. We draw on the modelling, data and scenario framework developed by the authors to support the European Commission's “Clean Planet for All” communication, released in November 2018. Based on model results for numerous scenarios and sensitivity runs, we analyse key issues to explore feasibility, uncertainties, costs and priorities for climate-neutrality strategy. We suggest that a sustainable climate-neutral energy system in the EU is feasible using known technologies. We emphasise that the EU's climate and energy package for 2030 currently in legislation is not sufficient to ensure climate neutrality by 2050. We characterise as of “no-regret” options promoting energy efficiency, renewables and electrification where cost-effective. However, carbon neutrality also necessitates alternative options of “disruptive” nature. Technologies supporting the disruptive options are not yet mature in industry. High uncertainty surrounds their learning potential. Their deployment heavily depends on policies facilitating investment. The system analysis based on the model illustrates the importance of sectoral integration. We argue that hydrogen, and to a certain extent synthetic carbon-neutral hydrocarbons, are critical elements among the disruptive options.

Keywords: Decarbonisation; Climate neutrality; Energy system modelling; EU energy policy; Sectoral integration; Renewables and energy efficiency (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (48)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:enepol:v:134:y:2019:i:c:s0301421519305476

DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2019.110960

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