Key findings from the core North American scenarios in the EMF34 intermodel comparison

Hillard Huntington, Abha Bhargava, David Daniels, John P. Weyant, Charalampos Avraam, John Bistline, James A. Edmonds, Sara Giarola, Adam Hawkes, Matthew Hansen, Peter Johnston, Anahi Molar-Cruz, Michael Nadew, Sauleh Siddiqui, Kathleen Vaillancourt and Nadejda Victor

Energy Policy, 2020, vol. 144, issue C

Abstract: Within Canada, Mexico or the United States, policy-making organizations are evaluating energy markets and energy trade within their own borders often by ignoring how these countries’ energy systems are integrated with each other. These analytical gaps provided the main motivation for the Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) 34 study on North American energy integration and trade. This paper compares North American results from 17 models and discusses their policy motivation. Oil and natural gas production in the three major countries are modestly sensitive to crude oil and natural gas price changes, although these elasticities are below unity. Carbon taxes displace coal and some natural gas with renewables within all three power markets. Lower natural gas prices replace coal and some renewables with natural gas within electric generation. Higher intermittent renewable penetration in the power sector displaces coal and some natural gas. A key conclusion is that much remains to be done in integrating future analyses and in sharing and improving the quality and consistency of the underlying data.

Keywords: Energy market integration; Energy transitions; Model comparison; Data sharing (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C60 Q41 Q48 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (17)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:enepol:v:144:y:2020:i:c:s0301421520303372

DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2020.111599

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