 Analyzing uncertainty in projections of Canadian energy use and production: Results and insights from EMF 34 scenariosMatthew Hansen, Abha Bhargava, Michael Nadew, Melanie Stogran, Lukas Hansen, Mantaj Hundal, Peter Budgell and Ryan Safton Energy Policy, 2021, vol. 148, issue PA Abstract: This paper analyzes the uncertainty associated with Reference Case, or baseline, projections of Canadian energy use and production. We use the Canada Energy Regulator's Energy Futures modeling system to explore the impacts of changing key assumptions. The choice of assumptions and magnitude of change are guided by the scenarios in the Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) 34 project. We find important variations across all scenarios. In particular, we note that Canada's role as an energy producer is important for interpreting projection and scenario results. Overall, this analysis shows that it is important to test key assumptions in a typical Reference Case projection. However, this analysis also highlights many complexities in energy system modeling. It is also important to consider the potential interplay between key variables. This speaks to the importance of broader scenario analysis, where multiple assumptions are changed in an internally consistent way, as a useful complement to the focused scenario analysis found in this paper. Keywords: Energy; Canada; Supply; Demand; Modeling; Projections (search for similar items in EconPapers) Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:enepol:v:148:y:2021:i:pa:s0301421520306261 DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2020.111915 Access Statistics for this article Energy Policy is currently edited by N. France More articles in Energy Policy from Elsevier |
Is your work missing from RePEc? Here is how to contribute.
Questions or problems? Check the EconPapers FAQ or send mail to .
EconPapers is hosted by the
School of Business at Örebro University.