Greenhouse gas emission forecasts for electrification of space heating in residential homes in the US

Theresa Pistochini, Mitchal Dichter, Subhrajit Chakraborty, Nelson Dichter and Aref Aboud

Energy Policy, 2022, vol. 163, issue C

Abstract: This study aims to inform policymakers about the greenhouse gas emission impacts of heat pump deployment in residential homes. Electric heat pumps eliminate direct burning of fossil fuels in homes but result in indirect emissions due to fossil fuels burned for electricity production. This paper presents the first detailed emission forecasts for operating either a heat pump or gas furnace for residential heating over a 15-year period, starting in year 2022 through 2036, in six regions across the US. The study accounted for long-run marginal emissions from electricity generation, emissions from natural gas combustion in homes, and fugitive methane and refrigerant emissions from leaks. The population weighted US average results show emission reductions for a heat pump over furnace to be 38–53% for carbon dioxide, 53–67% for 20-Year global warming potential (GWP), and 44–60% for 100-Year GWP, with reductions increasing over time. The impact of fugitive emissions from the furnace is significantly higher than that of the heat pump. While more energy efficient construction reduces overall emissions for both heating types, the forecasted percent emission reduction for replacement of a gas furnace with heat pump was not impacted by changes in home construction parameters.

Keywords: Electrification; Heat pump; Gas furnace; Space conditioning; EnergyPlus modelling; Greenhouse gas emission forecast (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421522000386
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:enepol:v:163:y:2022:i:c:s0301421522000386

DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2022.112813

Access Statistics for this article

Energy Policy is currently edited by N. France

More articles in Energy Policy from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().