Convergence of oil consumption: A historical perspective with new concepts

Saban Nazlioglu, Yacouba Kassouri, Ilhan Kucukkaplan and Ugur Soytas

Energy Policy, 2022, vol. 168, issue C

Abstract: Growing concerns about long-run equilibrium in the oil market have focused on understanding the time path of oil consumption across countries. This study examines the convergence of oil consumption across the largest oil consumers. To this end, we employ the historical oil consumption data dating back to 1890 by benefiting from the newly proposed convergence concepts, including relative/club convergence and weak σ-convergence, in addition to the conventional β-convergence notion. The empirical results provide new and insightful findings. First, considering common factors in the dynamics of oil consumption leads to convergence. Second, the overall evidence of absolute convergence has been at work among countries mainly before the great depression 1890–1929, while divergence occurs after the mid of 1990s. Third, the divergence observed over the last decades persists even after accounting for either a relative or weak form of convergence, supporting the primary role of the current dynamics in world oil markets. Divergence calls for stricter energy transition policies. Moreover, the clustering algorithm identifies unique convergent clubs, indicating that a unified energy policy is not tenable.

Keywords: Oil consumption; Convergence; Panel data; Common factor (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C55 O47 Q40 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:enepol:v:168:y:2022:i:c:s0301421522003755

DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2022.113150

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