Effects of government subsidies on heavy-duty hydrogen fuel cell truck penetration: A scenario-based system dynamics model

Min Zhu, Peiwu Dong, Yanbing Ju, Jiajun Li and Lun Ran

Energy Policy, 2023, vol. 183, issue C

Abstract: Enhancing energy security and cutting carbon emissions have rapidly boosted heavy-duty hydrogen fuel cell truck (HFCT) industry. Heavy-duty HFCT penetration involves four key players: consumers, refueling station operators, heavy-duty HFCT manufacturers, and hydrogen suppliers. Clear comprehension of government subsidy impacts on these agents can boost penetration. We used a system dynamics (SD) model to analyze single-stage and two-stage subsidy policies' impact on four agents, employing Shanghai, China as a case study. Results indicate that (1) Acquisition subsidies are most impactful, followed by refueling station construction subsidies, and R&D subsidies are least efficient, whether two-stage or single-stage. (2) For two-stage subsidies, higher and longer acquisition subsidies in the later stage are preferable, early stage benefits from higher, extended refueling station construction subsidies., the effect of the two-stage subsidy policy for heavy-duty HFCT R&D subsidies is not much different, and the hydrogen R&D subsidy should be lower and longer in the early stage. (3) Lower and longer subsidies for hydrogen R&D in the early stage will have the best subsidy effect. (4) The penetration reacts more to oil price shifts than operational cost changes. Finally, specific policy implications are offered to enhance heavy-duty HFCT adoption.

Keywords: Heavy-duty hydrogen fuel cell truck; Single-stage subsidy; Two-stage subsidy; Subsidy efficiency; System dynamics model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421523003944
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:enepol:v:183:y:2023:i:c:s0301421523003944

DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113809

Access Statistics for this article

Energy Policy is currently edited by N. France

More articles in Energy Policy from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().