Exploring phase-out path of China's coal power plants with its dynamic impact on electricity balance

Zemin Wu, Qiuwei Wu, Xianyu Yu, Qunwei Wang and Jin Tan

Energy Policy, 2024, vol. 187, issue C

Abstract: The carbon neutrality goal is driving China to phase out its coal plants. However, the phase-out policies under extreme weather condition has led to severe electricity shortage. A reconsideration of coal power phase-out path is necessary to balance the demand of carbon neutrality, electricity security, and economic growth, including appropriate pace and direction. In order to explore the dynamic and non-linear impact on electricity balance, a hybrid model of system dynamics (SD) and Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) called SD-LEAP is proposed in this paper. The scenario simulation results shows the following implications: (1) Under the benchmark development (BD) scenario, electricity shortages may still exist before 2027 if China phases out coal plants at their 30-years technical lifespan. The estimated monthly electricity deficit may range from 6 to 12 billion kWh. (2) To reduce the electricity shortage risk, China should increase the electricity efficiency to decrease its electricity consumption per GDP by at least 5% compared to benchmark standard when adopting accelerated phase-out (APO) path. (3) Flexible phase-out (FPO) path can significantly reduce the electricity shortage risk. Its cumulative carbon emissions from 2020 to 2050 will reach 70.4 billion tons which is 4.3% lower than that of the APO path.

Keywords: Electricity shortage; System dynamic; Coal power phase-out path; Electricity balance (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:enepol:v:187:y:2024:i:c:s0301421524000417

DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2024.114021

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