Emerging threats to energy security - a Delphi study

Simon Önnered, Peter E. Johansson, Ioana Stefan and Anders Fundin

Energy Policy, 2025, vol. 206, issue C

Abstract: Energy systems around the world are undergoing immense transformations through many parallel developments. These changes across the energy landscape are introducing new security threats which require a degree of foresight to anticipate and subsequently mitigate the effects of. Therefore, through a systematic 3-round Delphi methodology, this study explores emerging threats to energy security from the political, economic, technological, socio-cultural, and environmental domains. Findings contribute with a broad picture of the emerging threat landscape in an increasingly renewable, integrated, and electrified post-modern energy system. Threats are ranked by the experts in terms of the most critical issues to non-issues, thereby offering insight for policy development. Political short-termism and tunnel vision and polarization are viewed as the most significant threats with a high degree of consensus amongst participating experts, followed by unambitious climate goals which increase environmental threats to energy security in the long-term. Based on these results, policy implications are derived throughout the reviewed domains to bolster long-term energy system resilience. Through its focus on Sweden, this study contributes with insights into the emerging context of countries at the forefront of energy transitions.

Keywords: Delphi; Energy security; Resilience; Anticipation; Energy futures; Foresight (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:enepol:v:206:y:2025:i:c:s0301421525002423

DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114735

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