The Tyndall decarbonisation scenarios--Part I: Development of a backcasting methodology with stakeholder participation

Sarah. L. Mander, Alice Bows, Kevin. L. Anderson, Simon Shackley, Paolo Agnolucci and Paul Ekins

Energy Policy, 2008, vol. 36, issue 10, 3754-3763

Abstract: The Tyndall decarbonisation scenarios project has outlined alternative pathways whereby a 60% reduction in CO2 emissions from 1990 levels by 2050, a goal adopted by the UK Government, can be achieved. This paper, Part I of a two part paper, describes the methodology used to develop the scenarios and outlines the motivations for the project. The study utilised a backcasting approach, applied in three phases. In phase one, a set of credible and consistent end-points that described a substantially decarbonised energy system in 2050 were generated and reviewed by stakeholders. In phase two, pathways were developed to achieve the transition to the desired end-point. The impacts of the scenarios were assessed in phase three, by means of a deliberative multi-criteria assessment framework. The scenarios to emerge from this process are elaborated in Part II, and conclusions drawn in relation to the feasibility of achieving the 60% target.

Keywords: Energy; scenarios; Backcasting; UK (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2008
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (27)

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