How reasonable are oil production scenarios from public agencies?

Kristofer Jakobsson (), Bengt Söderbergh, Mikael Höök and Kjell Aleklett

Energy Policy, 2009, vol. 37, issue 11, 4809-4818

Abstract: According to the long-term scenarios of the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), conventional oil production is expected to grow until at least 2030. EIA has published results from a resource-constrained production model which ostensibly supports such a scenario. The model is here described and analyzed in detail. However, it is shown that the model, although sound in principle, has been misapplied due to a confusion of resource categories. A correction of this methodological error reveals that EIA's scenario requires rather extreme and implausible assumptions regarding future global decline rates. This result puts into question the basis for the conclusion that global "peak oil" would not occur before 2030.

Keywords: Peak; oil; Depletion; rate; R/P; ratio (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2009
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (18)

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