 European energy security: The future of Norwegian natural gas productionBengt Söderbergh, Kristofer Jakobsson () and Kjell Aleklett Energy Policy, 2009, vol. 37, issue 12, 5037-5055 Abstract: The European Union (EU) is expected to meet its future growing demand for natural gas by increased imports. In 2006, Norway had a 21% share of EU gas imports. The Norwegian government has communicated that Norwegian gas production will increase by 25-40% from today's level of about 99 billion cubic meters (bcm)/year. This article shows that only a 20-25% growth of Norwegian gas production is possible due to production from currently existing recoverable reserves and contingent resources. A high and a low production forecast for Norwegian gas production is presented. Norwegian gas production exported by pipeline peaks between 2015 and 2016, with minimum peak production in 2015 at 118Â bcm/year and maximum peak production at 127Â bcm/year in 2016. By 2030 the pipeline export levels are 94-78Â bcm. Total Norwegian gas production peaks between 2015 and 2020, with peak production at 124-135Â bcm/year. By 2030 the production is 96-115Â bcm/year. The results show that there is a limited potential for increased gas exports from Norway to the EU and that Norwegian gas production is declining by 2030 in all scenarios. Annual Norwegian pipeline gas exports to the EU, by 2030, may even be 20Â bcm lower than today's level. Keywords: Norway; Natural; gas; production; Forecast (search for similar items in EconPapers) Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:enepol:v:37:y:2009:i:12:p:5037-5055 Access Statistics for this article Energy Policy is currently edited by N. France More articles in Energy Policy from Elsevier |
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