 World oil prices, precious metal prices and macroeconomy in TurkeyUgur Soytas, Ramazan Sarı, Shawkat Hammoudeh and Erk Hacihasanoglu Energy Policy, 2009, vol. 37, issue 12, 5557-5566 Abstract: We examine the long- and short-run transmissions of information between the world oil price, Turkish interest rate, Turkish lira-US dollar exchange rate, and domestic spot gold and silver price. We find that the world oil price has no predictive power of the precious metal prices, the interest rate or the exchange rate market in Turkey. The results also show that the Turkish spot precious metals, exchange rate and bond markets do not also provide information that would help improve the forecasts of world oil prices in the long run. The findings suggest that domestic gold is also considered a safe haven in Turkey during devaluation of the Turkish lira, as it is globally. It is interesting to note that there does not seem to be any significant influence of developments in the world oil markets on Turkish markets in the short run either. However, transitory positive initial impacts of innovations in oil prices on gold and silver markets are observed. The short-run price transmissions between the world oil market and the Turkish precious metal markets have implications for policy makers in emerging markets and both local and global investors in the precious metals market and the oil market. Keywords: Oil; prices; Precious; metal; prices; Toda-Yamamoto; procedure (search for similar items in EconPapers) Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:enepol:v:37:y:2009:i:12:p:5557-5566 Access Statistics for this article Energy Policy is currently edited by N. France More articles in Energy Policy from Elsevier |
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