The vulnerability of renewable energy to climate change in Brazil

André Frossard Pereira de Lucena, Alexandre Salem Szklo, Roberto Schaeffer, Raquel Rodrigues de Souza, Bruno Soares Moreira Cesar Borba, Isabella Vaz Leal da Costa, Amaro Olimpio Pereira Júnior and Sergio Henrique Ferreira da Cunha

Energy Policy, 2009, vol. 37, issue 3, 879-889

Abstract: Energy supply in Brazil relies heavily on renewable energy source. The production of energy from renewable sources, however, greatly depends on climatic conditions, which may be impacted in the future due to global climate change (GCC). This paper analyzes the vulnerabilities of renewable energy production in Brazil for the cases of hydropower generation and liquid biofuels production, given a set of long-term climate projections for the A2 and B2 IPCC emission scenarios. The most important result found in this study is the increasing energy vulnerability of the poorest regions of Brazil to GCC. Both biofuels production (particularly biodiesel) and electricity generation (particularly hydropower) may negatively suffer from changes in the climate of those regions. Other renewable energy sources--such as wind power generation--may also be vulnerable, raising the need for further research. However, the results found are fundamentally dependent on the climate projections which, in turn, are still highly uncertain with respect to the future evolution of greenhouse gas emissions, greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere and GCC. Therefore, in such long-term scenario analyses, the trends and directions derived are the ones to be emphasized rather than the precise results one arrives.

Keywords: Global; climate; change; Renewable; energy; Vulnerability (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2009
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (65)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:enepol:v:37:y:2009:i:3:p:879-889

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