The application of seasonal latent variable in forecasting electricity demand as an alternative method

Kutluk Sumer (), Ozlem Goktas and Aycan Hepsag ()

Energy Policy, 2009, vol. 37, issue 4, 1317-1322

Abstract: In this study, we used ARIMA, seasonal ARIMA (SARIMA) and alternatively the regression model with seasonal latent variable in forecasting electricity demand by using data that belongs to "Kayseri and Vicinity Electricity Joint-Stock Company" over the 1997:1-2005:12 periods. This study tries to examine the advantages of forecasting with ARIMA, SARIMA methods and with the model has seasonal latent variable to each other. The results support that ARIMA and SARIMA models are unsuccessful in forecasting electricity demand. The regression model with seasonal latent variable used in this study gives more successful results than ARIMA and SARIMA models because also this model can consider seasonal fluctuations and structural breaks.

Keywords: Autoregressive; integrated; moving; average; (ARIMA); model; Seasonal; autoregressive; integrated; moving; average; (SARIMA); model; Seasonal; latent; variable (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2009
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (10)

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