Potential errors when fitting experience curves by means of spreadsheet software

W.G.J.H.M. van Sark and E.A. Alsema

Energy Policy, 2010, vol. 38, issue 11, 7508-7511

Abstract: Progress ratios (PRs) are widely used in forecasting development of many technologies; they are derived from historical data represented in experience curves. Fitting the double logarithmic graphs is easily done with spreadsheet software like Microsoft Excel, by adding a trend line to the graph. However, it is unknown to many that these data are transformed to linear data before a fit is performed. This leads to erroneous results or a transformation bias in the PR, as we demonstrate using the experience curve for photovoltaic technology: logarithmic transformation leads to overestimates of progress ratios and underestimates of goodness of fit. Therefore, other graphing and analysis software is recommended.

Keywords: Experience; curve; Progress; ratio; Data; transformation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2010
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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