 The paradox of oil reserve forecasts: The political implications of predicting oil reserves and oil consumptionOded Balaban and Alexander Tsatskin Energy Policy, 2010, vol. 38, issue 3, 1340-1344 Abstract: In the light of the outstanding importance of hydrocarbons for global energy, the controversy over peak oil has become both pressing and emotionally charged. Two conflicting parties - alarmists and optimists - hold irreconcilable positions. The shaping of the future energy policy is presently based on modeling results and geological considerations only. We show that the existing predictions of the energy crisis are increasingly mixed-up with value-judgments. The value analysis of those forecasts allows us to suggest that at least part of the estimations are implicit reflections of predictors' ends and values, and do not demonstrate a real ability to anticipate future conditions. Paradoxically, the question of oil reserves depletion is better understood when predictions are viewed as an instrument to impose the predictors' values and intervene in the currently bustling oil market. The intervention in the oil prices may occur in either direction becoming a tool to justify values rather than an instrument for the acquisition of knowledge. Keywords: Energy; crisis; Values; Political; implications (search for similar items in EconPapers) Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:enepol:v:38:y:2010:i:3:p:1340-1344 Access Statistics for this article Energy Policy is currently edited by N. France More articles in Energy Policy from Elsevier |
Is your work missing from RePEc? Here is how to contribute.
Questions or problems? Check the EconPapers FAQ or send mail to .
EconPapers is hosted by the
School of Business at Örebro University.