A low-carbon scenario creation method for a local-scale economy and its application in Kyoto city

Kei Gomi, Koji Shimada and Yuzuru Matsuoka

Energy Policy, 2010, vol. 38, issue 9, 4783-4796

Abstract: On May 2008, Kyoto city government set up a low-carbon target of a 50% GHG reduction by 2030 compared to the 1990 level. To contribute to these discussions, we developed a local (city-scale) low-carbon scenario creation method. An estimation model was developed to show a quantitative and consistent future snapshot. The model can explicitly treat the uncertainty of future socio-economic situations, which originate from the openness of local economy. The method was applied to Kyoto city, and countermeasures to achieve the low-carbon target were identified. Without countermeasures, emissions would increase 12% from 2000. Among the measures, the reduction potential of energy efficiency improvements to residential and commercial sectors was found to be relatively large (15% and 18% of total reductions, respectively). The reduction potential of the passenger transport sector, in which the city government's policy is especially important, was 17% of the total amount. A sensitivity analysis showed that a 10% increase in exports leads to an 8.5% increase in CO2 emissions, and a 20% increase in the share of the commuters from outside the city leads to a 3.5% decrease of CO2 emissions because of the smaller number of residents in the city.

Keywords: Low-carbon; society; Local; environmental; policy; Backcasting (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2010
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (37)

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