Industry evolution, rational agents and the transition to sustainable electricity production
Karolina Safarzynska () and
Jeroen van den Bergh
Energy Policy, 2011, vol. 39, issue 10, 6440-6452
Guiding a transition to low carbon electricity requires a good understanding of the substitution of old by new technologies in the electricity industry. With the aim of explaining historical change from coal to gas in the British electricity industry, we develop a formal model of technological change, where energy technologies diffuse through the construction of new power plants. We considered two model versions: with rational and boundedly rational investors. In each model version, we look at the causal relations between price and output setting mechanisms, fuel and labour use, and investment decisions for different institutional arrangements. We quantify model parameters on data for the United Kingdom. We find that the version of the model with rational investors is capable of replicating well core features of UK electricity history. This includes a rapid diffusion of gas in electricity production, the evolution of the average size of newly installed plants, and a high percentage of electricity sales covered by (forward) contracts-for-difference. In this model setting, nuclear and renewable energies have no chance to diffuse on the market. In the version of the model with boundedly rational investors, nuclear power typically dominates electricity production. We discuss implications of our modelling results for making a transition to low carbon electricity in the future.
Keywords: Electricity; Endogenous; investments; Low; carbon; economy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (7) Track citations by RSS feed
Downloads: (external link)
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:enepol:v:39:y:2011:i:10:p:6440-6452
Access Statistics for this article
Energy Policy is currently edited by N. France
More articles in Energy Policy from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Dana Niculescu ().