Economic impact of oil price shocks on the Turkish economy in the coming decades: A dynamic CGE analysis

Levent Aydın () and Mustafa Acar

Energy Policy, 2011, vol. 39, issue 3, 1722-1731

Abstract: As a small open economy, Turkey depends on both imported oil and natural gas, importing almost two-thirds of its primary energy demand. This paper analyzes the economic effects of oil price shocks for Turkey as a small, open oil- and gas-importing country. To analyze the potential long-term effects of oil price shocks on macroeconomic variables of interest, including GDP, consumer price inflation, indirect tax revenues, trade balance, and carbon emissions, we developed TurGEM-D, a dynamic multisectoral general equilibrium model for the Turkish economy. Using TurGEM-D, we analyzed the impact of oil price shocks under three distinct scenarios: reference, high and low oil prices. The simulation results show that these oil prices have very significant effects on macro indicators and carbon emissions in the Turkish economy.

Keywords: Oil; price; shocks; Dynamic; CGE; Turkish; Economy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2011
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (62)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:enepol:v:39:y:2011:i:3:p:1722-1731

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