Assessment of China's climate commitment and non-fossil energy plan towards 2020 using hybrid AIM/CGE model

Hancheng Dai, Toshihiko Masui, Yuzuru Matsuoka and Shinichiro Fujimori

Energy Policy, 2011, vol. 39, issue 5, 2875-2887

Abstract: China made a commitment in Copenhagen to reduce its carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP from 40% to 45% compared with the 2005 level by 2020, and is determined to vigorously develop non-fossil fuels. This study analyzes the effects and impacts of policies that could help to achieve China's Copenhagen commitments with a hybrid static CGE model in which the electricity sector is disaggregated into 12 generation technologies. Four scenarios are developed, including the reference scenario A, the reference scenario B and two carbon constraint scenarios. The results show that carbon intensity in terms of GDP will fall by 30.97% between 2005 and 2020 in the reference scenario A, and will be reduced further by 7.97% if China's targeted non-fossil energy development plans can be achieved in the reference scenario B. However, the rest of the 40-45% target must be realized by other measures such as carbon constraint. It is also observed that due to carbon intensity constraints, GDP loss would be from 0.032% to 0.24% compared to the reference scenario B, and CO2 emission reductions are due mainly to decreases in coal consumption in the electricity sector and manufacturing sector.

Keywords: China's; commitment; Non-fossil; energy; Computable; general; equilibrium; models (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2011
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (74)

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