Modeling future vehicle sales and stock in China

Hong Huo and Michael Wang

Energy Policy, 2012, vol. 43, issue C, 17-29

Abstract: This article presents an updated and upgraded methodology, the Fuel Economy and Environmental Impacts (FEEI) model (http://www.feeimodel.org/), to project vehicle sales and stock in China on the basis of our previous studies. The methodology presented has the following major improvements: it simulates private car ownership on an income-level basis, takes into account car purchase prices, separates sales into purchases for fleet growth and for replacements of scrapped vehicles, and examines various possible vehicle scrappage patterns for China. The results show that the sales of private light-duty passenger vehicles in China could reach 23–42 million by 2050, with the share of new-growth purchases representing 16–28%. The total vehicle stock may be 530–623 million by 2050. We compare this study to other publicly available studies in terms of both projection methodology and results. A sensitivity analysis shows that vehicle sales are more affected than levels of vehicle stock by the model parameters, which makes projecting sales more difficult owing to the lack of reliable input data for key model parameters. Because it considers key factors in detail, the sales and stock projection module of the FEEI model offers many advantages over previous models and is capable of simulating various policy scenarios.

Keywords: Vehicle stock; Vehicle projection; China (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2012
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (55)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421511007774
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:enepol:v:43:y:2012:i:c:p:17-29

DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2011.09.063

Access Statistics for this article

Energy Policy is currently edited by N. France

More articles in Energy Policy from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().